Match Details

  • Teams: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka

  • Date & Time: 11 Nov 2025, 2:30 PM IST

  • Venue: Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium, Rawalpindi

  • Tournament: ODI

Short Match Preview

Pakistan’s recent form is mixed (W L W L L), while Sri Lanka arrive in better rhythm (W W W L W). H2H snippets in the feed lean slightly Pakistan, but SL’s current top-order + all-round punch (Kusal Mendis, Nissanka, Asalanka/Hasaranga) has been racking up fantasy points. Pakistan’s bowling upswing (A Ahmed/Naseem/Shaheen; Agha Salman & Nawaz as utility) keeps them in it.

Win Probability (Modelled from recent form + venue trend)

Team

Win Chance

Pakistan

52%

Sri Lanka

48%

Edge to Pakistan via pace unit; SL’s batting form keeps it tight.

Pitch & Venue Analysis — Rawalpindi

  • Surface: Balanced; even selection of batters and bowlers recommended.

  • Avg 1st Inns: 262 | Avg wickets/innings: 7

  • Pace vs Spin (fantasy pts/over):

    • 1st inns: Pace 6.5 > Spin 4.4

    • 2nd inns: Pace 5.3 > Spin 4.7

  • Bowling vs Batting FP share: Bat 61.5% vs Bowl 38.5%

  • Toss Trend at venue: Captains prefer to chase; results ~70% wins while chasing (decision split shows 100% choosing to chase in sample).

Venue Fantasy Notes

  • Pacers slightly superior overall; new ball + death overs are the main wicket phases.

  • If there’s dew, chasing sides get a further nudge—bump top-order chasers and death pacers bowling first.

Recent Team Form Snapshot

  • Pakistan: W L W L L

    • Struggled when batting first (L L L L W in sample).

  • Sri Lanka: W W W L W

    • Comfortable when batting first (W W W W W in sample).

Fantasy Consistency — Last 5 (Overall)

Pakistan – Last 5 Matches Fantasy Points

Player

Role

Match 1

Match 2

Match 3

Match 4

Match 5

Total

S Ayub

AR

155

102

144

42

51

494

A Ahmed

BOW

174

116

89

54

52

485

N Shah

BOW

22

127

85

118

99

451

M Nawaz

AR

94

111

78

88

78

449

A Salman

AR

78

103

102

58

15

356

S Afridi

BOW

95

14

57

27

153

346

M Wasim

BOW

62

20

62

80

95

319

F Ashraf

AR

4

93

6

37

164

304

M Rizwan

WK

66

20

99

1

54

240

H Rauf

BOW

7

40

21

95

37

200

H Nawaz

BAT

5

13

64

115

197

F Akram

BOW

45

33

91

169

F Zaman

BAT

1

1

89

52

22

165

H Talat

AR

4

19

34

16

55

128

B Azam

BAT

63

15

23

13

1

115

Haseebullah

WK

9

9

Sri Lanka – Last 5 Matches Fantasy Points

Player

Role

Match 1

Match 2

Match 3

Match 4

Match 5

Total

K Mendis

WK

9

58

238

124

165

594

A Fernando

BOW

77

120

127

158

92

574

W Hasaranga

AR

106

149

117

47

31

450

J Liyanage

AR

67

140

24

142

70

443

P Nissanka

BAT

206

140

59

21

10

436

C Asalanka

AR

116

13

106

46

146

427

D Chameera

BOW

129

24

137

58

52

400

K Mendis (BAT)

BAT

13

142

33

50

16

254

J Vandersay

BOW

6

87

29

37

78

237

P Madushan

BOW

21

27

46

79

43

216

E Malinga

BOW

15

11

92

38

5

161

S Samarawickrama

WK

47

71

4

12

9

143

M Theekshana

BOW

21

13

19

21

8

82

🔍 Observations

  • Top 3 overall (by last 5-match total):

    • 🥇 Kusal Mendis (594)

    • 🥈 Asitha Fernando (574)

    • 🥉 Saim Ayub (494)

  • Best consistency (Avg ≥ 85):

    • A Ahmed (97), S Ayub (92), M Nawaz (89), A Fernando (88), D Chameera (87)

  • Best Bowling Returners:

    • A Ahmed (PAK) and A Fernando (SL) lead wicket-based points.

    • Chameera + Naseem Shah are value pacers for fantasy balance.

  • Form Dips:

    • Babar Azam (Avg 23) and Fakhar Zaman (Avg 33) have underperformed lately.

    • M Rizwan has moderate 240 total but high H2H impact vs SL (157 avg).Hot Hands (Last 5 Matches — Total FP)

Across teams

  • Kusal Mendis (SL, WK): 594

  • Asitha Fernando (SL, Bow): 574

  • Saim Ayub (PAK, AR): 494

  • A Ahmed (PAK, Bow): 485

  • Naseem Shah (PAK, Bow): 451

  • W Hasaranga (SL, AR): 450

  • M Nawaz (PAK, AR): 449

  • J Liyanage (SL, AR): 443

  • Pathum Nissanka (SL, Bat): 436

  • Charith Asalanka (SL, AR): 427

H2H (PAK vs SL recent sample) standouts

  • M Rizwan (PAK): 315 in 2 (157 avg)

  • Kusal Mendis (SL): 340 in 3 (113 avg)

  • Fakhar Zaman (PAK): 263 in 4 (65 avg)

Phase Impact — Who to trust

Powerplay (1–10)

  • PAK bowling: Shaheen Afridi (left-arm swing), Naseem Shah (hit-the-deck), A Ahmed (if used early).

  • SL batting: Kusal Mendis (counterattacks), Nissanka (anchors).
    Fantasy lean: Pair one of Shaheen/Naseem with Mendis to hedge.

Middle Overs (11–40)

  • SL: Hasaranga to squeeze + strike; Asalanka/Liyanage for batting stability.

  • PAK: M Nawaz + Agha Salman provide holding overs and bonus catches/run-outs.

Death Overs (41–50)

  • Wicket takers: Naseem, Shaheen, Chameera, A Fernando.
    Tip: Death specialists are high-variance C/VC punts when the opponent is chasing.

MVP Picks (Safe Caps)

  1. Kusal Mendis (SL, WK): Elite recent form + H2H ceiling; dual points via catches/stumpings.

  2. Wanindu Hasaranga (SL, AR): 4-dimensional value (wkts + econ + late runs + fielding).

  3. Mohammad Rizwan (PAK, WK): 157 avg in recent H2H (2 matches); plays situation superbly.

Differential Picks (High Upside)

  • A Ahmed (PAK, Bow): 97 avg in L5; form spinner/seamer (listed Bow) with strike trend.

  • Naseem Shah (PAK, Bow): New ball + death—78 avg last 8 matches in set.

  • Dushmantha Chameera (SL, Bow): 87 avg; death overs + hard lengths at RWP.

  • Saim Ayub (PAK, AR): 92 avg; floats in order, can add part-time overs.

Suggested Dream11 Combination (Safe/Balanced)

Team Build: 2 WK – 3 BAT – 3 AR – 3 BOW

  • WK: Kusal Mendis, Mohammad Rizwan

  • BAT: Babar Azam, Pathum Nissanka, Fakhar Zaman

  • AR: Wanindu Hasaranga, Mohammad Nawaz, Saim Ayub

  • BOW: Naseem Shah, Shaheen Afridi, Dushmantha Chameera

Captain: Kusal Mendis
Vice-Captain: Wanindu Hasaranga
Alternates: VC Mohammad Rizwan or Naseem Shah; swap Fakhar Zaman ⟷ Charith Asalanka/Janith Liyanage if conditions slow.

If you want a more bowling-heavy punt XI: bring in A Ahmed (PAK) for Fakhar Zaman and upgrade pace stack.

Conditional Strategy & Final Tips

  • If Pakistan bat first: Lean PAK bowlers for 2nd-innings movement under lights; keep Mendis (C) as chase anchor.

  • If Sri Lanka bat first: Prioritize Hasaranga + A Fernando/Chameera; add Nawaz for middle-over control.

  • If heavy dew expected: Elevate chasers’ top-4 (Mendis, Nissanka, Rizwan, Babar); reduce SL/PAK spinners marginally.

  • Toss watch: With Rawalpindi’s chasing bias, stack extra batter from the chasing side and include two death pacers from the bowling-first team.

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