Match Details
Teams: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka
Date & Time: 11 Nov 2025, 2:30 PM IST
Venue: Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium, Rawalpindi
Tournament: ODI
Short Match Preview
Pakistan’s recent form is mixed (W L W L L), while Sri Lanka arrive in better rhythm (W W W L W). H2H snippets in the feed lean slightly Pakistan, but SL’s current top-order + all-round punch (Kusal Mendis, Nissanka, Asalanka/Hasaranga) has been racking up fantasy points. Pakistan’s bowling upswing (A Ahmed/Naseem/Shaheen; Agha Salman & Nawaz as utility) keeps them in it.
Win Probability (Modelled from recent form + venue trend)
Team | Win Chance |
|---|---|
Pakistan | 52% |
Sri Lanka | 48% |
Edge to Pakistan via pace unit; SL’s batting form keeps it tight.
Pitch & Venue Analysis — Rawalpindi
Surface: Balanced; even selection of batters and bowlers recommended.
Avg 1st Inns: 262 | Avg wickets/innings: 7
Pace vs Spin (fantasy pts/over):
1st inns: Pace 6.5 > Spin 4.4
2nd inns: Pace 5.3 > Spin 4.7
Bowling vs Batting FP share: Bat 61.5% vs Bowl 38.5%
Toss Trend at venue: Captains prefer to chase; results ~70% wins while chasing (decision split shows 100% choosing to chase in sample).
Venue Fantasy Notes
Pacers slightly superior overall; new ball + death overs are the main wicket phases.
If there’s dew, chasing sides get a further nudge—bump top-order chasers and death pacers bowling first.
Recent Team Form Snapshot
Pakistan: W L W L L
Struggled when batting first (L L L L W in sample).
Sri Lanka: W W W L W
Comfortable when batting first (W W W W W in sample).
Fantasy Consistency — Last 5 (Overall)
Pakistan – Last 5 Matches Fantasy Points
Player | Role | Match 1 | Match 2 | Match 3 | Match 4 | Match 5 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S Ayub | AR | 155 | 102 | 144 | 42 | 51 | 494 |
A Ahmed | BOW | 174 | 116 | 89 | 54 | 52 | 485 |
N Shah | BOW | 22 | 127 | 85 | 118 | 99 | 451 |
M Nawaz | AR | 94 | 111 | 78 | 88 | 78 | 449 |
A Salman | AR | 78 | 103 | 102 | 58 | 15 | 356 |
S Afridi | BOW | 95 | 14 | 57 | 27 | 153 | 346 |
M Wasim | BOW | 62 | 20 | 62 | 80 | 95 | 319 |
F Ashraf | AR | 4 | 93 | 6 | 37 | 164 | 304 |
M Rizwan | WK | 66 | 20 | 99 | 1 | 54 | 240 |
H Rauf | BOW | 7 | 40 | 21 | 95 | 37 | 200 |
H Nawaz | BAT | 5 | 13 | 64 | 115 | — | 197 |
F Akram | BOW | 45 | 33 | 91 | — | — | 169 |
F Zaman | BAT | 1 | 1 | 89 | 52 | 22 | 165 |
H Talat | AR | 4 | 19 | 34 | 16 | 55 | 128 |
B Azam | BAT | 63 | 15 | 23 | 13 | 1 | 115 |
Haseebullah | WK | 9 | — | — | — | — | 9 |
Sri Lanka – Last 5 Matches Fantasy Points
Player | Role | Match 1 | Match 2 | Match 3 | Match 4 | Match 5 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K Mendis | WK | 9 | 58 | 238 | 124 | 165 | 594 |
A Fernando | BOW | 77 | 120 | 127 | 158 | 92 | 574 |
W Hasaranga | AR | 106 | 149 | 117 | 47 | 31 | 450 |
J Liyanage | AR | 67 | 140 | 24 | 142 | 70 | 443 |
P Nissanka | BAT | 206 | 140 | 59 | 21 | 10 | 436 |
C Asalanka | AR | 116 | 13 | 106 | 46 | 146 | 427 |
D Chameera | BOW | 129 | 24 | 137 | 58 | 52 | 400 |
K Mendis (BAT) | BAT | 13 | 142 | 33 | 50 | 16 | 254 |
J Vandersay | BOW | 6 | 87 | 29 | 37 | 78 | 237 |
P Madushan | BOW | 21 | 27 | 46 | 79 | 43 | 216 |
E Malinga | BOW | 15 | 11 | 92 | 38 | 5 | 161 |
S Samarawickrama | WK | 47 | 71 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 143 |
M Theekshana | BOW | 21 | 13 | 19 | 21 | 8 | 82 |
🔍 Observations
Top 3 overall (by last 5-match total):
🥇 Kusal Mendis (594)
🥈 Asitha Fernando (574)
🥉 Saim Ayub (494)
Best consistency (Avg ≥ 85):
A Ahmed (97), S Ayub (92), M Nawaz (89), A Fernando (88), D Chameera (87)
Best Bowling Returners:
A Ahmed (PAK) and A Fernando (SL) lead wicket-based points.
Chameera + Naseem Shah are value pacers for fantasy balance.
Form Dips:
Babar Azam (Avg 23) and Fakhar Zaman (Avg 33) have underperformed lately.
M Rizwan has moderate 240 total but high H2H impact vs SL (157 avg).Hot Hands (Last 5 Matches — Total FP)
Across teams
Kusal Mendis (SL, WK): 594
Asitha Fernando (SL, Bow): 574
Saim Ayub (PAK, AR): 494
A Ahmed (PAK, Bow): 485
Naseem Shah (PAK, Bow): 451
W Hasaranga (SL, AR): 450
M Nawaz (PAK, AR): 449
J Liyanage (SL, AR): 443
Pathum Nissanka (SL, Bat): 436
Charith Asalanka (SL, AR): 427
H2H (PAK vs SL recent sample) standouts
M Rizwan (PAK): 315 in 2 (157 avg)
Kusal Mendis (SL): 340 in 3 (113 avg)
Fakhar Zaman (PAK): 263 in 4 (65 avg)
Phase Impact — Who to trust
Powerplay (1–10)
PAK bowling: Shaheen Afridi (left-arm swing), Naseem Shah (hit-the-deck), A Ahmed (if used early).
SL batting: Kusal Mendis (counterattacks), Nissanka (anchors).
Fantasy lean: Pair one of Shaheen/Naseem with Mendis to hedge.
Middle Overs (11–40)
SL: Hasaranga to squeeze + strike; Asalanka/Liyanage for batting stability.
PAK: M Nawaz + Agha Salman provide holding overs and bonus catches/run-outs.
Death Overs (41–50)
Wicket takers: Naseem, Shaheen, Chameera, A Fernando.
Tip: Death specialists are high-variance C/VC punts when the opponent is chasing.
MVP Picks (Safe Caps)
Kusal Mendis (SL, WK): Elite recent form + H2H ceiling; dual points via catches/stumpings.
Wanindu Hasaranga (SL, AR): 4-dimensional value (wkts + econ + late runs + fielding).
Mohammad Rizwan (PAK, WK): 157 avg in recent H2H (2 matches); plays situation superbly.
Differential Picks (High Upside)
A Ahmed (PAK, Bow): 97 avg in L5; form spinner/seamer (listed Bow) with strike trend.
Naseem Shah (PAK, Bow): New ball + death—78 avg last 8 matches in set.
Dushmantha Chameera (SL, Bow): 87 avg; death overs + hard lengths at RWP.
Saim Ayub (PAK, AR): 92 avg; floats in order, can add part-time overs.
Suggested Dream11 Combination (Safe/Balanced)
Team Build: 2 WK – 3 BAT – 3 AR – 3 BOW
WK: Kusal Mendis, Mohammad Rizwan
BAT: Babar Azam, Pathum Nissanka, Fakhar Zaman
AR: Wanindu Hasaranga, Mohammad Nawaz, Saim Ayub
BOW: Naseem Shah, Shaheen Afridi, Dushmantha Chameera
Captain: Kusal Mendis
Vice-Captain: Wanindu Hasaranga
Alternates: VC Mohammad Rizwan or Naseem Shah; swap Fakhar Zaman ⟷ Charith Asalanka/Janith Liyanage if conditions slow.
If you want a more bowling-heavy punt XI: bring in A Ahmed (PAK) for Fakhar Zaman and upgrade pace stack.
Conditional Strategy & Final Tips
If Pakistan bat first: Lean PAK bowlers for 2nd-innings movement under lights; keep Mendis (C) as chase anchor.
If Sri Lanka bat first: Prioritize Hasaranga + A Fernando/Chameera; add Nawaz for middle-over control.
If heavy dew expected: Elevate chasers’ top-4 (Mendis, Nissanka, Rizwan, Babar); reduce SL/PAK spinners marginally.
Toss watch: With Rawalpindi’s chasing bias, stack extra batter from the chasing side and include two death pacers from the bowling-first team.