Match Details
Match: Pakistan vs South Africa, T20I
Date & Time: 28 Oct 2025, 08:30 PM IST
Venue: Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium
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Form guide:
Pakistan: W, W, L, W, W (strong, 4/5)
South Africa: L, L, W, L, W (patchy, 2/5)
H2H tilt (recent): Slight edge to Pakistan (PAK vs SA: W-W-W-L-L across the two summaries provided).
Conditions: High-scoring Rawalpindi (avg 1st inns ~191). Despite more captains choosing to chase (60%), matches are won batting first 70% — scoreboard pressure matters.
Verdict: Pakistan marginally ahead on form and venue familiarity, but SA have explosive match-winners (Brevis, Miller) who can flip a T20 in 2–3 overs.
Win Probability (modelled from form, H2H, venue trends)
Team | Win % |
|---|---|
Pakistan | 56% |
South Africa | 44% |
Pitch & Venue Analysis — Rawalpindi
Scoring: Avg 1st inns 191; High-scoring ground.
Fantasy split (last 10 T20s here):
1st inns FPts: Bat 302 | Bowl 208 → better batting returns early.
2nd inns FPts: Bowl 262 | Bat 209 → chasing sides lose more wickets; bowlers farm points later.
Bowling type: Pacers & spinners nearly equal overall (PACE 15.5 vs SPIN 14.1 FPts/over); parity rises further in 2nd inns (both ~17.2).
Toss: Captains often chase (60%), but results favor bat first (70% wins) → If you win toss and bat, stack top-order + PP enforcers.
Fantasy angle for venue
Prioritize top-order batters from the side batting first.
Bowlers with PP swing and death skills thrive in 2nd innings.
Local venue heroes: S Afridi (~58 avg in 6 here), A Ahmed (~57 in 7), F Ashraf (~57 in 5), S Farhan (~55 in 7).
Last-5 Fantasy Heat (Overall, all venues)
Pakistan
Player | Role | Last 5 FPts |
|---|---|---|
S Afridi | BOW | 58, 152, 121, 9, 143 |
H Rauf | BOW | 26, 132, 81, 93, 78 |
S Mirza | BOW | 10, 47, 133, 96, 80 |
S Farhan | WK/BAT | 117, 12, 48, 108, 23 |
F Ashraf | AR | 107, 27, 23, 87, 27 |
M Nawaz | AR | 13, 123, 80, 35, 20 |
A Ahmed | BOW | 41, 11, 64, 48, 90 |
F Zaman | BAT | 76, 23, 29, 31, 90 |
S Ayub | AR | 37, 94, 6, 36, 58 |
S Muqeem | BOW | 25, 81, 83, 14, 18 |
N Shah | BOW | 2, 23, 39, 115, 31 |
A Salman | BAT | 20, 31, 18, 29, 65 |
M Wasim | BOW | 4, 44, 62, 41, 4 |
B Azam | BAT | 48, 2, 55, 7, 23 |
A Samad-I | BAT | 8, 82, 4, 29, 7 |
H Nawaz | BAT | 15, 9, 19, 29, 8 |
U Khan | WK | 15, 7, 14, 16, 4 |
South Africa
Player | Role | Last 5 FPts |
|---|---|---|
D Brevis | BAT | 12, 51, 119, 247, 14 |
K Maphaka | BOW | 9, 12, 66, 105, 176 |
C Bosch | AR | 66, 149, 114, 17, 12 |
N Burger | BOW | 90, 45, 61, 49, -2 |
L Ngidi | BOW | 22, 49, 38, 76, 55 |
D Miller | BAT | 120, 54, 25, 10, 25 |
Q de Kock | WK | 5, 73, 18, 31, 95 |
R Hendricks | BAT | 15, 69, 79, 8, 30 |
A Simelane | AR | 91, 52, 9, 7, 36 |
G Linde | AR | 39, 29, 44, 14, 56 |
O Baartman | BOW | 48, 31, 49, 23, 30 |
M Breetzke | BAT | 19, 30, 84, 29, 17 |
D Ferreira | AR | 18, 51, 65, 6, 19 |
G Coetzee | BOW | 68, 3, 69, 13, 0 |
N Peter | BOW | 43, 16, 40, 48, -2 |
L Pretorius | BAT/WK | 34, 6, 6, 60, 28 |
L Williams | BOW | 28, 0, 4, 37, 12 |
Pakistan — Top Recent Performers
Player | Role | Last-5 Total FPts | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
S Afridi | BOW | 483 | Venue beast, PP wickets + late burst |
H Rauf | BOW | 410 | Death specialist; wicket frequency high |
S Mirza | BOW | 366 | Middle-overs control (vs BAN/UAE spike) |
S Farhan | WK/BAT | 308 | Two 100+ outings in last 5 |
F Ashraf | AR | 271 | Dual points; safe floor |
M Nawaz | AR | 271 | Form + venue record strong |
A Ahmed | BOW | 254 | Consistent (47–90 range) |
F Zaman | BAT | 249 | Six-hitting at Rawalpindi; C/VC punt |
South Africa — Top Recent Performers
Player | Role | Last-5 Total FPts | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
D Brevis | BAT | 443 | Ceiling monster (247 vs AUS in run) |
K Maphaka | BOW | 368 | Hit-the-deck + death wickets |
C Bosch | AR | 358 | Bat + ball returns; high consistency |
N Burger | BOW | 243 | PP wickets; good form in Africa series |
L Ngidi | BOW | 240 | PP/MI overs; steady |
D Miller | BAT | 234 | H2H spike vs PAK (120 on 10 Dec ‘24) |
Q de Kock | WK | 222 | Boom-bust; huge if set |
Powerplay & Death Overs — Impact Lens
Pakistan bowl:
PP: Shaheen Afridi (left-arm inswing threat), Naseem Shah (if plays).
Middle: Abrar Ahmed variations; S Mirza if included.
Death: Haris Rauf primary; Shaheen often takes 19th/20th when hunting.
South Africa bowl:
PP: Ngidi/Burger new ball.
Middle: G Linde (if plays) + Coetzee enforcer overs.
Death: Coetzee/Maphaka — wicket opportunities even if a few go for runs.
Fantasy takeaway: Prioritize PP openers + death bowlers regardless of toss; if bat first, load top-3 batters; if chase, add 2–3 death bowlers.
MVP Picks (Safe) & Differentials (High Upside)
MVP / Safe picks
Shaheen Afridi (PAK, BOW): Form + venue + PP/Death overlap = elite floor/ceiling.
Dewald Brevis (SA, BAT): Top recent run; opens/climbs into top-3; sixes = bonus.
Cameron Bosch (SA, AR): Dual-role, consistent ~60–80 band lately.
Haris Rauf (PAK, BOW): Death wicket magnet, fields in hot zones.
Differential / High-risk, high-reward
Fakhar Zaman (PAK, BAT): Rawalpindi suits his hitting arc.
David Miller (SA, BAT): Proven H2H spike vs PAK.
Abrar Ahmed (PAK, BOW): Middle-overs strike if SA attack spin.
Nandre Burger (SA, BOW): Early movement; 1–2 PP strikes swing contests.
Suggested Dream11 Team (Pre-toss)
(Adjust to confirmed XIs; picks reflect recent data & venue trends.)
WK (1):
S Farhan (PAK) – form + venue record; glovework points
(Alt if SA stack confirmed: Q de Kock for ceiling)
BAT (4):
D Brevis (SA)
B Azam (PAK)
F Zaman (PAK)
D Miller (SA)
AR (3):
C Bosch (SA)
M Nawaz (PAK)
F Ashraf (PAK)
BOW (3):
S Afridi (PAK)
H Rauf (PAK)
K Maphaka (SA)
(Bench/backup options if XIs differ: A Ahmed (PAK), N Burger (SA), G Coetzee (SA), S Mirza (PAK))
C/VC:
Captain: Shaheen Afridi (wickets in PP + death; safe + ceiling)
Vice-Captain: Dewald Brevis (form ceiling)
Aggressive alt C/VC: Haris Rauf / Cameron Bosch
Team balance: 7 PAK : 4 SA (tweak 6:5 if SA load death bowlers)
Conditional Strategy (Update at Toss)
If PAK bat first:
Boost PAK top-order (Fakhar, Babar) and retain Shaheen for new-ball + 19th/20th.
VC from Brevis → consider moving to Miller if SA chase a big total.
If SA bat first:
Add Coetzee/Burger over one PAK AR; keep Brevis (C/VC).
Rauf becomes near-mandatory for death overs if SA set 180+.
If heavy dew forecast (late): Slight nudge to chasing batters and death bowlers from the team bowling second.
Final Tips
Anchor the core around Shaheen + Rauf + Brevis; rotate Bosch/Nawaz/Fakhar based on toss and XI.
Rawalpindi rewards intent — don’t over-stack accumulators; ensure at least 3 hitters in top-4 across teams.
Keep one spin option (Nawaz/Abrar or Linde) — parity with pace grows in 2nd innings.