NZ vs AUS Dream11 Prediction – Fantasy Cricket Tips, Probable Playing 11, Win Probability & Dream Team Suggestions

Match Details

Teams: New Zealand vs Australia
Date/Time: 4 Oct, 11:45 AM IST
Venue: Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui
Format/Tournament: T20I

Short Preview

Recent form:
- New Zealand: L W W W W (mixed start, otherwise strong)
- Australia: W W L W W (solid, slightly better momentum)
Head-to-Head recent: AUS hold the edge (AUS: W W W W L in the last 5).
Last meeting (1 Oct): Big fantasy hauls for M Marsh (181) and T Robinson (192) underline current trump cards.

Verdict: Australia start slightly ahead on form + H2H, but Bay Oval conditions are balanced—game can swing with toss/PP execution.

Win Probability (modelled from recent form, H2H, and venue balance)

Team	Chance
Australia	58%
New Zealand	42%

Bay Oval – Pitch & Venue Analysis

Nature: Balanced – make an even selection of batters and bowlers.
Avg 1st inns score: 166
Avg wickets/inn: ~7
Toss trends: Captains prefer chasing (70%), but wins batting first ~60% → scoreboard pressure works if 170+.
Pace vs Spin (fantasy points/over):
- 1st inns: Pace 11.1 | Spin 11.3 (even)
- 2nd inns: Pace 14.5 | Spin 11.2 → chasing pacers get a boost.
Ground dims: ~70m square & straight.
Top venue performers noted: J Duffy, T Robinson, M Bracewell, Z Foulkes, M Henry, T Seifert.

Fantasy lean: Slight premium on quality pacers, especially from the chasing side. Batting-friendly if set; spinners still relevant via control/GT overs.

Fantasy Insights – Form Heat (Last 5)

🏏 New Zealand – Last 5 Match Fantasy Points

Player	Role	M1	M2	M3	M4	M5	Total
M Henry	BOW	71 vs AUS	75 vs SA	90 vs ZIM	110 vs ZIM	114 vs SA	460
T Robinson	BAT	192 vs AUS	20 vs ZIM	135 vs SA	36 vs PAK	57 vs SL	440
T Seifert	WK	12 vs AUS	68 vs SA	149 vs ZIM	132 vs SA	19 vs ZIM	380
J Duffy	BOW	7 vs AUS	46 vs SA	83 vs ZIM	25 vs SA	118 vs SA	279
K Jamieson	BOW	46 vs AUS	4 vs PAK	127 vs ENG	6 vs ENG	87 vs ENG	270
D Conway	WK	5 vs AUS	97 vs SA	35 vs ZIM	101 vs SA	29 vs SA	267
Z Foulkes	AR	32 vs AUS	34 vs SA	64 vs ZIM	21 vs PAK	110 vs SA	261
M Bracewell	AR	14 vs AUS	66 vs SA	103 vs ZIM	12 vs ZIM	39 vs SA	234
D Mitchell	AR	62 vs AUS	52 vs SA	34 vs ZIM	46 vs SA	17 vs SA	211
B Jacobs	BAT	28 vs AUS	10 vs ZIM	12 vs ZIM	76 vs SA	–	126
M Chapman	BAT	18 vs AUS	7 vs SA	2 vs ZIM	30 vs SA	20 vs ZIM	77

🏏 Australia – Last 5 Match Fantasy Points

Player	Role	M1	M2	M3	M4	M5	Total
B Dwarshuis	BOW	82 vs NZ	13 vs SA	98 vs SA	145 vs SA	123 vs WI	461
T David	BAT	55 vs NZ	31 vs SA	116 vs SA	167 vs SA	80 vs WI	449
M Short	BAT	96 vs NZ	22 vs PAK	66 vs PAK	29 vs PAK	194 vs ENG	407
M Marsh	AR	181 vs NZ	110 vs SA	44 vs SA	27 vs SA	38 vs WI	400
J Hazlewood	BOW	51 vs NZ	81 vs SA	42 vs SA	114 vs SA	64 vs ENG	352
X Bartlett	BOW	4 vs NZ	88 vs WI	37 vs PAK	57 vs PAK	93 vs PAK	279
A Zampa	BOW	12 vs NZ	81 vs SA	37 vs SA	88 vs WI	51 vs SA	269
T Head	BAT	75 vs NZ	35 vs SA	13 vs SA	6 vs SA	53 vs ENG	182
M Stoinis	AR	7 vs NZ	102 vs PAK	19 vs PAK	29 vs ENG	0 vs ENG	157
A Carey	WK	29 vs NZ	66 vs SA	7 vs BAN	29 vs BAN	16 vs BAN	147
M Owen	AR	4 vs NZ	18 vs SA	14 vs SA	81 vs WI	14 vs WI	131

Last Match Dream Team (NZ vs AUS at Bay Oval, 1 Oct 2025)

🏏 Last Match Dream Team (Bay Oval)

Player	Team	Role	Fantasy Points
T Robinson	NZ	BAT	192
M Marsh	AUS	AR	181
M Short	AUS	BAT	96
B Dwarshuis	AUS	BOW	82
T Head	AUS	BAT	75
M Henry	NZ	BOW	71
D Mitchell	NZ	AR	62
T David	AUS	BAT	55
J Hazlewood	AUS	BOW	51
K Jamieson	NZ	BOW	46
Z Foulkes	NZ	AR	32

🚨 Key Notes:

Captain-worthy returns: T Robinson (192) & M Marsh (181) – clear top two.
Value picks: B Dwarshuis (82) & M Short (96) both exceeded expectations.
Balanced split: NZ 4 players | AUS 7 players → Australia dominated, but Robinson carried NZ.
Bowling combo: Henry, Hazlewood, Dwarshuis, Jamieson → mix of strike pacers.

Powerplay & Death Overs Impact

PP Batters to target: T Head, M Marsh (AUS) | T Seifert, T Robinson (NZ).
PP Bowlers: J Hazlewood (AUS new ball), M Henry (NZ), J Duffy (NZ).
Death Overs (16–20): B Dwarshuis (AUS) and M Henry (NZ) headline wicket options; T David benefits as death-overs striker.

H2H/Series Fantasy Highlights

Perfect-lineup frequency: Maxwell, Zampa, Duffy, Seifert, Dwarshuis feature often.
Recent H2H stars: M Marsh (consistent), T Robinson (breakout), Hazlewood/Dwarshuis (control & wickets).

Key MVP Picks

Mitchell Marsh (AUS, AR): Bat in top order, occasional overs; monster last vs NZ.
Tim David (AUS, BAT): Peak ceiling in slog overs; form 87 avg.
Matt Henry (NZ, BOW): Form + venue suitability; wickets in clusters.
Glenn Maxwell (AUS, AR): Triple-threat; safe floor, big upside.

Differential Picks (lower ownership, high upside)

Rachin Ravindra (NZ, AR): Promotes balance; can impact both innings.
Josh Hazlewood (AUS, BOW): PP breakthroughs; ideal if NZ set/press.
Tom Robinson (NZ, BAT): Form spike; if opening, huge PP leverage.
Adam Zampa (AUS, BOW): If surface slows, mid-overs choke + wickets.

Suggested Dream11 Combination (Balanced 7:4 tilt to AUS)

(Subject to final XIs; swap like-for-like if someone misses out)

WK (1): T Seifert (NZ)
BAT (4): M Marsh (AUS), T Head (AUS), T David (AUS), T Robinson (NZ)
AR (2): G Maxwell (AUS), R Ravindra (NZ)
BOWL (4): J Hazlewood (AUS), B Dwarshuis (AUS), M Henry (NZ), A Zampa (AUS)

Captain (C): Mitchell Marsh
Vice-Captain (VC): Matt Henry
Alternates: VC Glenn Maxwell (safer floor) or Tim David (higher ceiling if AUS chase).

Final Fantasy Tips (Conditional)

If AUS bowl second / NZ bat first:
- Prioritise Hazlewood + Dwarshuis + Zampa; keep Henry.
- Batting core: Marsh/Head + one of Seifert/Robinson.
If AUS chase:
- Elevate Tim David (VC option); keep Marsh/Maxwell/Head trio.
- You can drop one of Zampa/Sodhi type spinners for extra pacer due to 2nd-innings pace boost.
If NZ chase:
- Seifert + Robinson gain value; retain Maxwell for finishing + offspin vs LHBs.
Micro-edge: Bay Oval rewards disciplined pacers late—lock at least one death bowler per side (Henry & Dwarshuis).

❝

Note: Monitor toss and batting order. If Robinson doesn’t open, downgrade his ceiling slightly; if NZ play Bracewell, he becomes a savvy GL punt for mid-over control + boundary hitting.