Match Details
Teams: New Zealand vs Australia
Date/Time: 3 Oct, 11:45 AM IST
Venue: Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui
Format/Tournament: T20I
Short Preview
Recent form:
New Zealand: L W W W W (mixed start, otherwise strong)
Australia: W W L W W (solid, slightly better momentum)
Head-to-Head recent: AUS hold the edge (AUS: W W W W L in the last 5).
Last meeting (1 Oct): Big fantasy hauls for M Marsh (181) and T Robinson (192) underline current trump cards.
Verdict: Australia start slightly ahead on form + H2H, but Bay Oval conditions are balanced—game can swing with toss/PP execution.
Win Probability (modelled from recent form, H2H, and venue balance)
Team | Chance |
---|---|
Australia | 58% |
New Zealand | 42% |
Bay Oval – Pitch & Venue Analysis
Nature: Balanced – make an even selection of batters and bowlers.
Avg 1st inns score: 166
Avg wickets/inn: ~7
Toss trends: Captains prefer chasing (70%), but wins batting first ~60% → scoreboard pressure works if 170+.
Pace vs Spin (fantasy points/over):
1st inns: Pace 11.1 | Spin 11.3 (even)
2nd inns: Pace 14.5 | Spin 11.2 → chasing pacers get a boost.
Ground dims: ~70m square & straight.
Top venue performers noted: J Duffy, T Robinson, M Bracewell, Z Foulkes, M Henry, T Seifert.
Fantasy lean: Slight premium on quality pacers, especially from the chasing side. Batting-friendly if set; spinners still relevant via control/GT overs.
Fantasy Insights – Form Heat (Last 5)
🏏 New Zealand – Last 5 Match Fantasy Points
Player | Role | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M Henry | BOW | 71 vs AUS | 75 vs SA | 90 vs ZIM | 110 vs ZIM | 114 vs SA | 460 |
T Robinson | BAT | 192 vs AUS | 20 vs ZIM | 135 vs SA | 36 vs PAK | 57 vs SL | 440 |
T Seifert | WK | 12 vs AUS | 68 vs SA | 149 vs ZIM | 132 vs SA | 19 vs ZIM | 380 |
J Duffy | BOW | 7 vs AUS | 46 vs SA | 83 vs ZIM | 25 vs SA | 118 vs SA | 279 |
K Jamieson | BOW | 46 vs AUS | 4 vs PAK | 127 vs ENG | 6 vs ENG | 87 vs ENG | 270 |
D Conway | WK | 5 vs AUS | 97 vs SA | 35 vs ZIM | 101 vs SA | 29 vs SA | 267 |
Z Foulkes | AR | 32 vs AUS | 34 vs SA | 64 vs ZIM | 21 vs PAK | 110 vs SA | 261 |
M Bracewell | AR | 14 vs AUS | 66 vs SA | 103 vs ZIM | 12 vs ZIM | 39 vs SA | 234 |
D Mitchell | AR | 62 vs AUS | 52 vs SA | 34 vs ZIM | 46 vs SA | 17 vs SA | 211 |
B Jacobs | BAT | 28 vs AUS | 10 vs ZIM | 12 vs ZIM | 76 vs SA | – | 126 |
M Chapman | BAT | 18 vs AUS | 7 vs SA | 2 vs ZIM | 30 vs SA | 20 vs ZIM | 77 |
🏏 Australia – Last 5 Match Fantasy Points
Player | Role | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B Dwarshuis | BOW | 82 vs NZ | 13 vs SA | 98 vs SA | 145 vs SA | 123 vs WI | 461 |
T David | BAT | 55 vs NZ | 31 vs SA | 116 vs SA | 167 vs SA | 80 vs WI | 449 |
M Short | BAT | 96 vs NZ | 22 vs PAK | 66 vs PAK | 29 vs PAK | 194 vs ENG | 407 |
M Marsh | AR | 181 vs NZ | 110 vs SA | 44 vs SA | 27 vs SA | 38 vs WI | 400 |
J Hazlewood | BOW | 51 vs NZ | 81 vs SA | 42 vs SA | 114 vs SA | 64 vs ENG | 352 |
X Bartlett | BOW | 4 vs NZ | 88 vs WI | 37 vs PAK | 57 vs PAK | 93 vs PAK | 279 |
A Zampa | BOW | 12 vs NZ | 81 vs SA | 37 vs SA | 88 vs WI | 51 vs SA | 269 |
T Head | BAT | 75 vs NZ | 35 vs SA | 13 vs SA | 6 vs SA | 53 vs ENG | 182 |
M Stoinis | AR | 7 vs NZ | 102 vs PAK | 19 vs PAK | 29 vs ENG | 0 vs ENG | 157 |
A Carey | WK | 29 vs NZ | 66 vs SA | 7 vs BAN | 29 vs BAN | 16 vs BAN | 147 |
M Owen | AR | 4 vs NZ | 18 vs SA | 14 vs SA | 81 vs WI | 14 vs WI | 131 |
Last Match Dream Team (NZ vs AUS at Bay Oval, 1 Oct 2025)
🏏 Last Match Dream Team (Bay Oval)
Player | Team | Role | Fantasy Points |
---|---|---|---|
T Robinson | NZ | BAT | 192 |
M Marsh | AUS | AR | 181 |
M Short | AUS | BAT | 96 |
B Dwarshuis | AUS | BOW | 82 |
T Head | AUS | BAT | 75 |
M Henry | NZ | BOW | 71 |
D Mitchell | NZ | AR | 62 |
T David | AUS | BAT | 55 |
J Hazlewood | AUS | BOW | 51 |
K Jamieson | NZ | BOW | 46 |
Z Foulkes | NZ | AR | 32 |
🚨 Key Notes:
Captain-worthy returns: T Robinson (192) & M Marsh (181) – clear top two.
Value picks: B Dwarshuis (82) & M Short (96) both exceeded expectations.
Balanced split: NZ 4 players | AUS 7 players → Australia dominated, but Robinson carried NZ.
Bowling combo: Henry, Hazlewood, Dwarshuis, Jamieson → mix of strike pacers.
Powerplay & Death Overs Impact
PP Batters to target: T Head, M Marsh (AUS) | T Seifert, T Robinson (NZ).
PP Bowlers: J Hazlewood (AUS new ball), M Henry (NZ), J Duffy (NZ).
Death Overs (16–20): B Dwarshuis (AUS) and M Henry (NZ) headline wicket options; T David benefits as death-overs striker.
H2H/Series Fantasy Highlights
Perfect-lineup frequency: Maxwell, Zampa, Duffy, Seifert, Dwarshuis feature often.
Recent H2H stars: M Marsh (consistent), T Robinson (breakout), Hazlewood/Dwarshuis (control & wickets).
Key MVP Picks
Mitchell Marsh (AUS, AR): Bat in top order, occasional overs; monster last vs NZ.
Tim David (AUS, BAT): Peak ceiling in slog overs; form 87 avg.
Matt Henry (NZ, BOW): Form + venue suitability; wickets in clusters.
Glenn Maxwell (AUS, AR): Triple-threat; safe floor, big upside.
Differential Picks (lower ownership, high upside)
Rachin Ravindra (NZ, AR): Promotes balance; can impact both innings.
Josh Hazlewood (AUS, BOW): PP breakthroughs; ideal if NZ set/press.
Tom Robinson (NZ, BAT): Form spike; if opening, huge PP leverage.
Adam Zampa (AUS, BOW): If surface slows, mid-overs choke + wickets.
Suggested Dream11 Combination (Balanced 7:4 tilt to AUS)
(Subject to final XIs; swap like-for-like if someone misses out)
WK (1): T Seifert (NZ)
BAT (4): M Marsh (AUS), T Head (AUS), T David (AUS), T Robinson (NZ)
AR (2): G Maxwell (AUS), R Ravindra (NZ)
BOWL (4): J Hazlewood (AUS), B Dwarshuis (AUS), M Henry (NZ), A Zampa (AUS)
Captain (C): Mitchell Marsh
Vice-Captain (VC): Matt Henry
Alternates: VC Glenn Maxwell (safer floor) or Tim David (higher ceiling if AUS chase).
Final Fantasy Tips (Conditional)
If AUS bowl second / NZ bat first:
Prioritise Hazlewood + Dwarshuis + Zampa; keep Henry.
Batting core: Marsh/Head + one of Seifert/Robinson.
If AUS chase:
Elevate Tim David (VC option); keep Marsh/Maxwell/Head trio.
You can drop one of Zampa/Sodhi type spinners for extra pacer due to 2nd-innings pace boost.
If NZ chase:
Seifert + Robinson gain value; retain Maxwell for finishing + offspin vs LHBs.
Micro-edge: Bay Oval rewards disciplined pacers late—lock at least one death bowler per side (Henry & Dwarshuis).
Note: Monitor toss and batting order. If Robinson doesn’t open, downgrade his ceiling slightly; if NZ play Bracewell, he becomes a savvy GL punt for mid-over control + boundary hitting.