Match Details

  • Teams: New Zealand vs Australia

  • Date/Time: 3 Oct, 11:45 AM IST

  • Venue: Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui

  • Format/Tournament: T20I

Short Preview

  • Recent form:

    • New Zealand: L W W W W (mixed start, otherwise strong)

    • Australia: W W L W W (solid, slightly better momentum)

  • Head-to-Head recent: AUS hold the edge (AUS: W W W W L in the last 5).

  • Last meeting (1 Oct): Big fantasy hauls for M Marsh (181) and T Robinson (192) underline current trump cards.

Verdict: Australia start slightly ahead on form + H2H, but Bay Oval conditions are balanced—game can swing with toss/PP execution.

Win Probability (modelled from recent form, H2H, and venue balance)

Team

Chance

Australia

58%

New Zealand

42%

Bay Oval – Pitch & Venue Analysis

  • Nature: Balanced – make an even selection of batters and bowlers.

  • Avg 1st inns score: 166

  • Avg wickets/inn: ~7

  • Toss trends: Captains prefer chasing (70%), but wins batting first ~60% → scoreboard pressure works if 170+.

  • Pace vs Spin (fantasy points/over):

    • 1st inns: Pace 11.1 | Spin 11.3 (even)

    • 2nd inns: Pace 14.5 | Spin 11.2 → chasing pacers get a boost.

  • Ground dims: ~70m square & straight.

  • Top venue performers noted: J Duffy, T Robinson, M Bracewell, Z Foulkes, M Henry, T Seifert.

Fantasy lean: Slight premium on quality pacers, especially from the chasing side. Batting-friendly if set; spinners still relevant via control/GT overs.

Fantasy Insights – Form Heat (Last 5)

🏏 New Zealand – Last 5 Match Fantasy Points

Player

Role

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

Total

M Henry

BOW

71 vs AUS

75 vs SA

90 vs ZIM

110 vs ZIM

114 vs SA

460

T Robinson

BAT

192 vs AUS

20 vs ZIM

135 vs SA

36 vs PAK

57 vs SL

440

T Seifert

WK

12 vs AUS

68 vs SA

149 vs ZIM

132 vs SA

19 vs ZIM

380

J Duffy

BOW

7 vs AUS

46 vs SA

83 vs ZIM

25 vs SA

118 vs SA

279

K Jamieson

BOW

46 vs AUS

4 vs PAK

127 vs ENG

6 vs ENG

87 vs ENG

270

D Conway

WK

5 vs AUS

97 vs SA

35 vs ZIM

101 vs SA

29 vs SA

267

Z Foulkes

AR

32 vs AUS

34 vs SA

64 vs ZIM

21 vs PAK

110 vs SA

261

M Bracewell

AR

14 vs AUS

66 vs SA

103 vs ZIM

12 vs ZIM

39 vs SA

234

D Mitchell

AR

62 vs AUS

52 vs SA

34 vs ZIM

46 vs SA

17 vs SA

211

B Jacobs

BAT

28 vs AUS

10 vs ZIM

12 vs ZIM

76 vs SA

126

M Chapman

BAT

18 vs AUS

7 vs SA

2 vs ZIM

30 vs SA

20 vs ZIM

77

🏏 Australia – Last 5 Match Fantasy Points

Player

Role

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

Total

B Dwarshuis

BOW

82 vs NZ

13 vs SA

98 vs SA

145 vs SA

123 vs WI

461

T David

BAT

55 vs NZ

31 vs SA

116 vs SA

167 vs SA

80 vs WI

449

M Short

BAT

96 vs NZ

22 vs PAK

66 vs PAK

29 vs PAK

194 vs ENG

407

M Marsh

AR

181 vs NZ

110 vs SA

44 vs SA

27 vs SA

38 vs WI

400

J Hazlewood

BOW

51 vs NZ

81 vs SA

42 vs SA

114 vs SA

64 vs ENG

352

X Bartlett

BOW

4 vs NZ

88 vs WI

37 vs PAK

57 vs PAK

93 vs PAK

279

A Zampa

BOW

12 vs NZ

81 vs SA

37 vs SA

88 vs WI

51 vs SA

269

T Head

BAT

75 vs NZ

35 vs SA

13 vs SA

6 vs SA

53 vs ENG

182

M Stoinis

AR

7 vs NZ

102 vs PAK

19 vs PAK

29 vs ENG

0 vs ENG

157

A Carey

WK

29 vs NZ

66 vs SA

7 vs BAN

29 vs BAN

16 vs BAN

147

M Owen

AR

4 vs NZ

18 vs SA

14 vs SA

81 vs WI

14 vs WI

131

Last Match Dream Team (NZ vs AUS at Bay Oval, 1 Oct 2025)

🏏 Last Match Dream Team (Bay Oval)

Player

Team

Role

Fantasy Points

T Robinson

NZ

BAT

192

M Marsh

AUS

AR

181

M Short

AUS

BAT

96

B Dwarshuis

AUS

BOW

82

T Head

AUS

BAT

75

M Henry

NZ

BOW

71

D Mitchell

NZ

AR

62

T David

AUS

BAT

55

J Hazlewood

AUS

BOW

51

K Jamieson

NZ

BOW

46

Z Foulkes

NZ

AR

32

🚨 Key Notes:

  • Captain-worthy returns: T Robinson (192) & M Marsh (181) – clear top two.

  • Value picks: B Dwarshuis (82) & M Short (96) both exceeded expectations.

  • Balanced split: NZ 4 players | AUS 7 players → Australia dominated, but Robinson carried NZ.

  • Bowling combo: Henry, Hazlewood, Dwarshuis, Jamieson → mix of strike pacers.

Powerplay & Death Overs Impact

  • PP Batters to target: T Head, M Marsh (AUS) | T Seifert, T Robinson (NZ).

  • PP Bowlers: J Hazlewood (AUS new ball), M Henry (NZ), J Duffy (NZ).

  • Death Overs (16–20): B Dwarshuis (AUS) and M Henry (NZ) headline wicket options; T David benefits as death-overs striker.

H2H/Series Fantasy Highlights

  • Perfect-lineup frequency: Maxwell, Zampa, Duffy, Seifert, Dwarshuis feature often.

  • Recent H2H stars: M Marsh (consistent), T Robinson (breakout), Hazlewood/Dwarshuis (control & wickets).

Key MVP Picks

  • Mitchell Marsh (AUS, AR): Bat in top order, occasional overs; monster last vs NZ.

  • Tim David (AUS, BAT): Peak ceiling in slog overs; form 87 avg.

  • Matt Henry (NZ, BOW): Form + venue suitability; wickets in clusters.

  • Glenn Maxwell (AUS, AR): Triple-threat; safe floor, big upside.

Differential Picks (lower ownership, high upside)

  • Rachin Ravindra (NZ, AR): Promotes balance; can impact both innings.

  • Josh Hazlewood (AUS, BOW): PP breakthroughs; ideal if NZ set/press.

  • Tom Robinson (NZ, BAT): Form spike; if opening, huge PP leverage.

  • Adam Zampa (AUS, BOW): If surface slows, mid-overs choke + wickets.

Suggested Dream11 Combination (Balanced 7:4 tilt to AUS)

(Subject to final XIs; swap like-for-like if someone misses out)

WK (1): T Seifert (NZ)
BAT (4): M Marsh (AUS), T Head (AUS), T David (AUS), T Robinson (NZ)
AR (2): G Maxwell (AUS), R Ravindra (NZ)
BOWL (4): J Hazlewood (AUS), B Dwarshuis (AUS), M Henry (NZ), A Zampa (AUS)

Captain (C): Mitchell Marsh
Vice-Captain (VC): Matt Henry
Alternates: VC Glenn Maxwell (safer floor) or Tim David (higher ceiling if AUS chase).

Final Fantasy Tips (Conditional)

  • If AUS bowl second / NZ bat first:

    • Prioritise Hazlewood + Dwarshuis + Zampa; keep Henry.

    • Batting core: Marsh/Head + one of Seifert/Robinson.

  • If AUS chase:

    • Elevate Tim David (VC option); keep Marsh/Maxwell/Head trio.

    • You can drop one of Zampa/Sodhi type spinners for extra pacer due to 2nd-innings pace boost.

  • If NZ chase:

    • Seifert + Robinson gain value; retain Maxwell for finishing + offspin vs LHBs.

  • Micro-edge: Bay Oval rewards disciplined pacers late—lock at least one death bowler per side (Henry & Dwarshuis).

Note: Monitor toss and batting order. If Robinson doesn’t open, downgrade his ceiling slightly; if NZ play Bracewell, he becomes a savvy GL punt for mid-over control + boundary hitting.

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