Match Details
Teams: New Zealand vs England
Date & Time: 18 Oct, 11:45 AM IST
Venue: Hagley Oval, Christchurch
Format: T20I
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Recent Form
New Zealand: L L W W W (mixed, two recent losses)
England: W W W L W (strong run; 4 wins in last 5)
H2H (recent snippets): Slight tilt to England in recent meetings.
Context: Hagley Oval has been low-scoring with a clear pace bias. England’s in-form top order (Salt/Buttler) meets NZ’s strong seam pack (Henry/Duffy/Jamieson).
Win Probability
Team | Chances |
|---|---|
England | 54% |
New Zealand | 46% |
Basis: recent form, chasing advantage at venue (60% wins while chasing), and England’s powerplay batting vs pace-friendly deck.
Pitch & Venue Analysis — Hagley Oval
Avg 1st inns score: 122 → Low-scoring; par ~125–135.
Fantasy split: Bowlers 57.4% vs Batters 42.6%.
Pace vs Spin (FPts/over): Pace 13.0 > Spin 10.1.
1st inns: Pace 16.0, Spin 8.7
2nd inns: Spin 12.0, Pace 9.6 (spin grows later).
Toss trends at venue: Decision split 50–50; wins chasing ~60% → chasing slightly easier.
Ground dimensions: ~75m square & 75m straight → mishits can still carry; hard lengths rewarded.
Fantasy takeaway for venue
Load up on pacers (new ball + hard length bowlers).
One attacking leggie/left-arm spinner gains value especially 2nd innings.
Target top-order batters who maximize powerplay overs; middle-order accumulators are volatile.
Form & Fantasy Pulse (Last 5 matches)
New Zealand
Player | Role | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T Seifert | WK | 96 | 12 | 68 | 149 | 132 |
R Ravindra | BAT/AR | 89 | 119 | 15 | 112 | 108 |
J Neesham | AR | 194 | 14 | 171 | 49 | 10 |
T Robinson | BAT | 37 | 192 | 20 | 135 | 36 |
M Henry | BOW | 32 | 71 | 75 | 90 | 110 |
I Sodhi | BOW | 16 | 167 | 85 | 36 | 38 |
K Jamieson | BOW | 46 | 4 | 127 | 6 | 87 |
Z Foulkes | AR | 32 | 34 | 64 | 21 | 110 |
M Bracewell | AR | 58 | 14 | 66 | 103 | 12 |
J Duffy | BOW | 83 | 7 | 46 | 83 | 25 |
M Santner | AR | 13 | 14 | 98 | 52 | 65 |
D Conway | WK | 2 | 5 | 97 | 35 | 101 |
B Sears | BOW | 42 | 43 | 16 | 73 | 41 |
D Mitchell | BAT | 17 | 62 | 52 | 34 | 46 |
B Jacobs | BAT | 28 | 10 | 12 | 76 | — |
M Chapman | BAT | 28 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
England
Player | Role | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Salt | WK | 51 | 183 | 259 | 2 | 108 |
J Buttler | WK | 10 | 76 | 195 | 69 | 56 |
A Rashid | BOW | 122 | 43 | 38 | 33 | 77 |
J Overton | AR | 83 | 50 | 47 | 24 | 82 |
J Bethell | BAT | 41 | 48 | 68 | 17 | 110 |
B Carse | BOW | 43 | 53 | 24 | 94 | 45 |
L Dawson | AR | 76 | 41 | 75 | 14 | 44 |
H Brook | BAT | 81 | 10 | 75 | 66 | 14 |
L Wood | BOW | 23 | 14 | 12 | 73 | 117 |
S Curran | AR | 66 | 74 | 51 | 4 | 32 |
R Ahmed | AR | 53 | 19 | 4 | 95 | 10 |
J Cox | BAT | 127 | 2 | 40 | — | — |
T Banton | BAT | 79 | 23 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
S Baker | BOW | 8 | — | — | — |
Powerplay & Death Overs Impact
When NZ bats
PP (0–6): Seifert, Robinson, Ravindra are the shot-makers. Risk: L Wood & B Carse hard lengths.
Death (16–20): If Neesham/Santner at crease, finishing points spike; England’s Curran/Wood are wicket-taking.
When ENG bats
PP: Salt & Buttler target hard lengths; NZ’s best counters: Henry (seam), Duffy/Jamieson (bounce).
Middle: Santner/Sodhi to control rate; Rashid analog on ENG side when roles flip.
Death: Henry/Duffy vs Curran/Overton hitters — wicket clumps likely.
Key MVP & Differential Picks
MVP (safe C/VC pool)
P Salt (ENG): Red-hot PP destroyer on a deck aiding pace-on strokeplay.
M Henry (NZ): Venue kingmaker; new ball + death = double-dip wicket potential.
J Buttler (ENG): H2H stud with stable floor and ceiling.
Differentials
T Robinson (NZ): Form + intent; lower selection, huge upside.
B Carse (ENG): PP wicket bursts; under-picked.
J Duffy (NZ): Proven at Hagley; can outscore bigger names if NZ defends.
L Dawson (ENG): If ENG chase, batting points + 2nd-innings spin assist.
Suggested Dream11 Team (Venue-weighted, Balance 6 ENG / 5 NZ)
WK (2): P Salt, J Buttler
BAT (3): T Robinson, D Mitchell, H Brook
AR (3): J Neesham, M Santner, S Curran
BOWL (3): M Henry, L Wood, B Carse
Captain: P Salt
Vice-Captain: M Henry
Bench/Alternates by toss/role:
If ENG bowl first: consider J Duffy for H Brook (go 4 bowlers).
If ENG chase: consider L Dawson for B Carse (spin + bat points late).
If NZ bowl first: K Jamieson viable punt for S Curran in ultra-attack build.
Fantasy Points Snapshot (Last 5 — highlights)
New Zealand (quick table)
Player | FP Trend |
|---|---|
T Robinson | 37, 192, 20, 135, 36 |
J Neesham | 194, 14, 171, 49, 10 |
T Seifert | 96, 12, 68, 149, 132 |
M Henry | 32, 71, 75, 90, 110 |
J Duffy | 83, 7, 46, 83, 25 |
R Ravindra | 89, 119, 15, 112, 108 |
M Santner | 13, 14, 98, 52, 65 |
England (quick table)
Player | FP Trend |
|---|---|
P Salt | 51, 183, 259, 2, 108 |
J Buttler | 10, 76, 195, 69, 56 |
L Wood | 23, 14, 12, 73, 117 |
A Rashid | 122, 43, 38, 33, 77 |
S Curran | 66, 74, 51, 4, 32 |
B Carse | 43, 53, 24, 94, 45 |
H Brook | 81, 10, 75, 66, 14 |
(Bold = spike games; illustrates ceiling.)
Final Fantasy Tips
Base Build (safe): 2 WK (Salt/Buttler), 3–4 pacers, 2 AR (Neesham+Santner), 2–3 top-order bats.
If NZ bats first: favour NZ pacers (Henry/Duffy) + Rashid for middle squeeze; consider Robinson C punt.
If ENG chases: lift Dawson/Curran priority; Salt C becomes premium route with chasing bias.
Low total scenario (<140): Stack 4–5 bowlers, bowlers for both innings.
High variance punt: Jamieson on bouncey new ball; Carse for early breakthroughs.
Conclusion: Slight edge to England via PP batting depth and chasing record, but the venue’s low par brings NZ’s seamers firmly into play. Build around Salt/Buttler + Henry, and adjust two slots by toss and innings.