Match Details
Match: India vs Sri Lanka
Date & Time: 26 Sep, 08:00 PM IST
Venue: Dubai International Cricket Stadium
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India come in red-hot with five wins on the bounce (WWWWW). Sri Lanka’s curve is improving after a slow start (LLWWW). Dubai has been balanced-to-slightly-bowler friendly, with pacers enjoying a marginal edge and chasing sides winning more often. India’s recent form + superior middle-overs bowling (Kuldeep, Varun) and powerplay/death quality (Bumrah/Arshdeep) tilt this in their favour, while SL’s threat cluster sits in PP batting (Nissanka/Mendis) and death bowling (Pathirana/Thushara/Chameera).
Win Probability
Team | Chance |
|---|---|
India | 64% |
Sri Lanka | 36% |
Signals used: last-5 form, venue trend (chasing bias), bowling matchups, and player FPts momentum.
Pitch & Venue Analysis – Dubai International
Type: Balanced pitch; make an even selection of batters and bowlers
Average 1st Inns: 152
Avg Wkts/Inn: 7
Toss Trends: Teams prefer chasing (≈80%); Wins chasing ≈70%
Pace vs Spin (FPts/over): Pace ~14.4 > Spin ~12.3 (overall)
Innings Split (FPts):
1st inns: Bat 234.7 vs Bowl 236.1 (tight)
2nd inns: Bat 215.3 vs Bowl 220.1 (bowling still slightly ahead)
Ground Dimensions: ~80m square, 65m straight → rewards timing, but mishits carry to deepers—catching/death bowlers in play.
Fantasy angle: Slight pace preference; prioritize new-ball & death pacers, plus wicket-taking wrist-spin in middle overs. Chasers gain a small edge.
Recent Form Snapshot
India: WWWWW (also 5/5 wins batting first)
Sri Lanka: LLWWW (chasing: WWWL in the data slice)
Latest H2H signal: Last listed H2H leans SL (SL vs IND: W), but broader momentum = India.
Venue Fantasy Leaders (Dubai)
Frequent C/VC appearances & high FPts:
A Sharma (IND BAT) – Avg 118 in 4 matches here
K Yadav (IND BOW) – Avg 116 in 4
J Bumrah (IND BOW) – Avg 62 in 4
S Dube (IND AR) – Avg 57 in 4
A Patel (IND AR) – Avg 56 in 4
V Chakravarthy (IND BOW) – Avg 53 in 4
P Nissanka (SL BAT) – appeared as C/VC once in 2 here
Fantasy Consistency – Last 5 Matches (Overall feed)
India – Last 5 Match Fantasy Points
Player | Role | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A Sharma | BAT | 167 | 154 | 86 | 82 | 70 | 559 |
K Yadav | BOW | 122 | 47 | 51 | 127 | 169 | 516 |
J Bumrah | BOW | 88 | 9 | 97 | 56 | 76 | 326 |
A Patel | AR | 65 | 7 | 63 | 93 | 59 | 287 |
V Chakravarthy | BOW | 82 | 29 | 54 | 49 | 64 | 278 |
H Pandya | AR | 79 | 54 | 58 | 53 | 7 | 251 |
T Varma | BAT | 57 | 62 | 59 | 61 | 4 | 243 |
S Dube | AR | 17 | 71 | 10 | 20 | 122 | 240 |
S Gill | BAT | 55 | 91 | 13 | 22 | 46 | 227 |
S Samson | WK | 4 | 29 | 98 | 4 | 20 | 155 |
S Yadav | BAT | 15 | 16 | 4 | 81 | 25 | 141 |
Sri Lanka – Last 5 Match Fantasy Points
Player | Role | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W Hasaranga | AR | 123 | 79 | 18 | 79 | 82 | 381 |
N Thushara | BOW | 10 | 47 | 174 | 11 | 73 | 315 |
D Shanaka | BAT | 2 | 201 | 51 | 45 | 11 | 310 |
P Nissanka | BAT | 18 | 54 | 14 | 120 | 94 | 300 |
D Chameera | BOW | 58 | 49 | 42 | 82 | 67 | 298 |
M Theekshana | BOW | 75 | 19 | 59 | 50 | 14 | 217 |
K Mendis (WK) | WK | 2 | 74 | 134 | 43 | 23 | 276 |
K Perera | WK | 29 | 24 | 72 | 34 | 17 | 176 |
K Mendis (BAT) | BAT | 94 | 7 | 52 | 17 | 4 | 174 |
C Asalanka | AR | 46 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 21 | 149 |
C Karunaratne | AR | 30 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 61 |
India – Hot Hand Index
Player | Role | Last-5 FPts Total | Notables |
|---|---|---|---|
A Sharma | BAT | 559 | 167 vs BAN, 154 vs PAK – elite ceiling |
K Yadav | BOW | 516 | 169 & 127 spikes – wicket surge |
J Bumrah | BOW | 326 | PP+death wicket threat |
A Patel | AR | 287 | Points in all facets |
V Chakravarthy | BOW | 278 | Middle-overs control |
H Pandya | AR | 251 | Role stability improving |
T Varma | BAT | 243 | Steady 50–60 range |
S Gill | BAT | 227 | Solid floor |
S Dube | AR | 240 | Volatile but match-up breaker |
S Samson | WK | 155 | Strike-hitter; risk/reward |
S Yadav | BAT | 141 | Boom-bust, still dangerous |
Sri Lanka – Hot Hand Index
Player | Role | Last-5 FPts Total | Notables |
|---|---|---|---|
W Hasaranga | AR | 381 | Multi-phase wicket-taker |
N Thushara | BOW | 315 | Spike 174 vs AFG (death burst) |
D Shanaka | BAT | 310 | Ceiling 201 vs BAN |
P Nissanka | BAT | 300 | Stable top-order returns |
D Chameera | BOW | 298 | PP seam movement |
M Theekshana | BOW | 217 | Powerplay/middle squeeze |
K Mendis | WK/BAT | 276 | Ceiling 134 vs AFG |
K Perera | WK | 176 | Aggressive PP |
C Asalanka | AR | 149 | Part-time spin + middle-order |
C Karunaratne | AR | 61 | Lower-impact recently |
Powerplay & Death Overs Impact
India Bowling
PP (0–6): Bumrah (seam + length), Arshdeep/A Singh if picked; Axar occasionally if grip.
Middle (7–15): Kuldeep + Varun – wicket-taking phase, big fantasy upside.
Death (16–20): Bumrah primary; Arshdeep/A Patel support → dot-ball and wicket surges.
Sri Lanka Bowling
PP: Chameera (pace, hard lengths), Theekshana (new-ball spin).
Middle: Hasaranga – strike weapon vs right-handers.
Death: Pathirana (if plays), Thushara – highest spike potential; Chameera alternate.
Batting matchups to note
A Sharma vs pace in PP – form + venue hitting arc.
Nissanka/Mendis busy scoring in PP; protect vs Bumrah’s new-ball.
India vs SL death – risk vs Pathirana/Thushara → anchor + finisher mix valuable.
Key Dream11 Picks
MVP / Captaincy Tier
A Sharma (BAT, IND): Elite recent ceiling (559 in 5), strong venue record.
K Yadav (BOW, IND): Consistent strike-bowling; Dubai aids variations.
W Hasaranga (AR, SL): Two-way points (overs + boundary hitting), matchup-proof.
Strong Vice-Captaincy / Safe Core
J Bumrah (BOW, IND): PP + death coverage = wicket clusters.
P Nissanka (BAT, SL): Stable PP scorer; floor pick.
A Patel (AR, IND): 3D points; catches + economy + late runs.
Differentials (Grand League)
N Thushara (BOW, SL): Death specialist; huge spike scores.
D Shanaka (BAT, SL): Form volatile but proven high ceiling.
V Chakravarthy (BOW, IND): Middle overs wicket threat; lower ownership than Kuldeep/Bumrah.
S Dube (AR, IND): If promoted or used vs pace at death, can swing contests.
Suggested Team Combination (Small League)
Build: 1 WK – 3/4 BAT – 2 AR – 4/3 BOW (tilt slightly to bowlers due to venue)
XI Draft
WK: Kusal Mendis (SL)
BAT: A Sharma (IND) ✦C, T Varma (IND), P Nissanka (SL)
ALL: W Hasaranga (SL) ✦VC, A Patel (IND)
BOWL: K Yadav (IND), J Bumrah (IND), V Chakravarthy (IND), D Chameera (SL), N Thushara (SL)
Bench/Swap Watch: If Pathirana is in XI, consider swapping him in for Chameera/Thushara based on toss and balance. If India load left-handers, Theekshana gains value.
Final Fantasy Tips (Scenario-Based)
If India bat first: Back A Sharma (C), stack Kuldeep + Varun + Bumrah for middle/death wickets; retain one SL death pacer for slog overs.
If India chase: Slightly safer batting floors—keep A Sharma/T Varma; Bumrah VC remains viable for 2nd-innings wicket surges under lights.
If Sri Lanka bat first: Elevate Hasaranga VC + SL death pacer (Thushara/Pathirana); keep Kuldeep for mid-overs damage.
Toss bias (Dubai): If chasing, consider one extra batter; if batting first, prioritize wicket-takers and a finisher who can slog (Dube/Shanaka).
Note: Lock after XIs. Replace any non-starter with nearest role/phase match (e.g., Pathirana ↔ Thushara; Samson ↔ K Perera/Mendis depending on toss & XI).